CBO Scores House Republican's Health Care Bill

House Republicans seem pretty excited this morning about a small slice of the Congressional Budget Office's initial look at their health care bill. But they're not sharing the whole picture, of course. The Washington Post's Ezra Klein breaks it down:

CBO begins with the baseline estimate that 17 percent of legal, non-elderly residents won't have health-care insurance in 2010. In 2019, after 10 years of the Republican plan, CBO estimates that ...17 percent of legal, non-elderly residents won't have health-care insurance. The Republican alternative will have helped 3 million people secure coverage, which is barely keeping up with population growth. Compare that to the Democratic bill, which covers 36 million more people and cuts the uninsured population to 4 percent.

But maybe, you say, the Republican bill does a really good job cutting costs. According to CBO, the GOP's alternative will shave $68 billion off the deficit in the next 10 years. The Democrats, CBO says, will slice $104 billion off the deficit.

The Democratic bill, in other words, covers 12 times as many people and saves $36 billion more than the Republican plan. And amazingly, the Democratic bill has already been through three committees and a merger process. It's already been shown to interest groups and advocacy organizations and industry stakeholders. It's already made its compromises with reality. It's already been through the legislative sausage grinder. And yet it saves more money and covers more people than the blank-slate alternative proposed by John Boehner and the House Republicans. The Democrats, constrained by reality, produced a far better plan than Boehner, who was constrained solely by his political imagination and legislative skill.

In addition, most individuals who have insurance right now would not see a noticeable drop in their costs. For 15% of the people who have insurance right now, premiums would be reduced by an estimated 7-10%.  But for "nearly 80 percent of total private premiums," average insurance premiums would be reduced by only 0-3% by 2016.

You can read the CBO's letter here, as posted by Minority Leader Boehner.