Missouri moves up to #1 in FiveThirtyEight.com Senate rankings

Races are ranked by FiveThirtyEight.com in order of their likelihood of changing parties:

1. Missouri (R-Open)
I'd promised a couple of weeks ago that we'd have a new #1, and it's Missouri, which displaces the spot that New Hampshire had held for the previous two months. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat, has maintained a pretty consistent polling lead. She also has had an easier time with fundraising than Republicans like Roy Blunt and has a cute picture of a pony on her website. What's not to like? Missouri, as always, will be competitive, but Democrats may simply have the more appealing candidate here.

After Missouri comes New Hampshire (R-Open), Kentucky (R-Bunning), Connecticut (D-Dodd), Ohio (R-Open), Delaware (D-Open)...

Full analysis is here.