New Senate Race Rankings from The Hotline and Public Policy Polling
The National Journal and Public Policy Polling have released new rankings for the 2010 Senate races, in which they sort the contests by likelihood of switching parties.
Missouri comes in #3 in The Hotline's breakdown.
Given his poor early fundraising, Rep. Roy Blunt (R) needed a stellar second quarter -- and he got it. He also seems likely at this point to escape any significant primary challenge. Still, Democrats continue to have some advantages here, including their candidate, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who possesses a well-known family name and high approval ratings. In the end, however, it's likely that the winner will be the one who's best able to escape the drag from their national party brand.
Robin Carnahan actually only led Roy Blunt 45-44 when we polled it in January but never mind that: this is the kind of seat Democrats could win even if 2010 turns out to be a bad year. Carnahan is without a doubt the best candidate possible, and it's safe to say Missourians have a dimmer view of Congressional Republican leadership (Blunt) than Obama even if the President's numbers are falling. Still this state is always competitive, and I wouldn't expect next year to be any different. (D+1 based on Carnahan/Blunt match)
Neither analysis speculated about the impact of Blunt's existing primary challenger, Chuck Purgason, and the yet-to-actually-declare-her-intentions Sarah Steelman.
