Roy's Christmas Wish

I was a bit surprised to read this tweet from the official Roy Blunt Twitter feed this afternoon:

Charlie Cook, the respected independent, non-partisan analyst predicts our campaign will win: http://bit.ly/87kR1b

Wow, I thought to myself.  Charlie Cook is 'predicting' a win for Roy Blunt, 224 days before Blunt's primary election, and 315 days before Blunt's potential general election?  And Charlie Cook is 'predicting' a win even though Charlie Cook's own Political Report still says the Missouri Senate race is a "toss up"?  This would be quite the development, considering nothing has actually changed in Blunt's potential matchup with Robin Carnahan, and considering a recent (conservative-leaning) Rasmussen survey showed Blunt trailing Carnahan 44-46. 

It turns out that this is the analysis from Cook the Blunt campaign is celebrating:

Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.

Wasserman and Duffy are the specialists and the Cook Political Report experts on these races. They determine what the official projections are, which will be updated periodically as the campaigns develop. As they are the ones who are interviewing candidates, and talking with their campaign teams and consultants on a daily basis, along with state and local party leaders, they establish the party line for the Cook Political Report.

My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report's estimates, mirrors Wasserman's current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.

The difference between my view and Duffy's is that I tend to place a greater weight on national dynamics while she is focused much more on the developments within the state and the races, taking into account current polling and competitive primaries for both parties in various races while also factoring in a national political environment that is currently more favorable to Republicans.

Obviously much can and much will happen between now and November 2nd, 2010 and our estimates will undoubtedly change dozens of times over the next year.

So, not exactly a ringing endorsement of Blunt, or even a solid prediction.  Cook "suspects" a Republican gain in the Senate "predicated" on the assumption that it's "unlikely" a Democrat will win, ignoring all local polling, local factors and potential primary developments.

If I were running for Senate, and had very few positive things to talk about, I'd probably chalk Cook's column up as a win too. It wouldn't mean much, but would make me feel somewhat less icky inside. 

But when Cook's own report still calls it "toss up," and when Cook's 'prediction' ignores Roy Blunt's considerable (ahem) political baggage, Blunt's celebratory tweet is a bit of a stretch.