Jo Mannies Scoops Her Own Paper, Lets Slip Poll Numbers Showing Nixon with Big Lead


Yesterday on St. Louis television, Post-Dispatch reporter Jo Mannies let slip the results of a poll commissioned by her newspaper that was not supposed to be made public until Monday's publication.  As you can see by the captured screen below, the poll shows Jay Nixon sitting pretty at 50% with a big lead over GOP nominee Kenny Hulshof.

 

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Thanks for sharing the good news with us early, Jo.­


Big Lead

I found this clip of Jared Craighead talking about McCain's lead.  As you can see, just a little editing shows how the Missouri Governor's race is O V E R.

The executive director of the Missouri Republican Party called Sen. Claire McCaskill's GOP claims that John McCain Nixon is losing ground in the Show-Me State "disingenuous," and predicted that Barack Obama's campaign  The Republican Governors Associationwould eventually pull resources out of the state.

"They're just not getting traction here," Craighead said. "That's clear in the polls you see. I hope you just don't take them at their word. (Obama's) Hulshof's message just isn't resonating in Missouri," Craighead said.
Craighead said he believed that recent polls showing McCain Nixon ahead by 5 or 6 between 7 and 15 points are probably accurate. He pointed out that typically no statewide candidate usually wins Missouri by more than four points. "For Claire anyone to say John McCain Jay Nixon should be up by more than 6 points, it's just very disingenuous. It doesn't reflect the reality of Missouri," Craighead said.
Using Craighead's analysis of Missouri and statewide races, its safe to say that Nixon's lead of more than six points is virtual unreal.  Its clear that he's up by at least seven and probably more with very high positives.  As the Post Pollster said, its all in Nixon's control at this point and a veteran like him with a sizable money lead isn't going to blow it.

Lead

I would think the Jay Bird would have a bigger lead over Kenny.

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